Friday, January 16, 2015

The Clown Show

Clowns Play by Amanda Ryan, hosted at

A quick post to draw your attention to an alarm bell being rung by John Robb over at Global Guerrillas. In a recent blog post, he notes two days before the Charlie Hedbo attacks, a Saudi General was killed in an attack on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's border with the convenient fiction known as Iraq.

As Mr. Robb puts it:
Here is why this attack is significant.  
  • It tells us that ISIS is starting to focus on Saudi Arabia --> with good reason.  The reason is that there's simply no other way to unite the various groups under the ISIS banner.  ISIS, like all open source movements, needs to keep moving in order to stay alive (like a shark).  Right now, ISIS has stalled.  A jihad to retake the holy sites from the corrupt regime in Riyadh can serve as a simple plausible promise that can reignite the open source war ISIS started, on a global scale.
  • The Saudis are vulnerable.  The attackers knew exactly when the general was going to be at the outpost.  This tells us that the Saudi military is rife with ISIS sympathisers and/or active members.  If so, the Saudi military may melt away when facing jihadis (or switch sides) in the same way 30,000 Iraqi troops did early last year a couple of hundred miles to the north.
  • It explains the timing of Charlie Hebdo.  Not only was it an attack that has gained ISIS favor with millions of Saudis (given how racist and anti-islamic the magazine's cartoons were), it was also (and more importantly) a distraction.  It has successfully distracted the collective west, by pulling them into another "war on terrorism."  This attack is something I call a Red Queen's trap, since it results in damage to both the contestants in the struggle.
I want to harp on the third item Mr. Robb regards as significant - the relationship of the timing this attack and the attack in France. The Hedbo attack was perfectly designed to draw the attention of the chattering classes of the West away from the situation in the KSA.

The Clown Show

This is part of the Clown Show. Distract your opponents with bright shiny objects or actions guaranteed to push their buttons, while you execute your real strategy away from the lights and music of the circus tent.

Saudi Arabia is the key to the Middle East and the linchpin of the current way we've structured how petroleum supplies are managed on this planet. Much of the Western world is focused on the emotional satisfaction of feeling righteous in their anger over the killings of the Charlie Hedbo journalists and local authorities are garnering headlines in their attempts to root out "extremists" in their midst. All the while, the Islamic State continues to keep its foothold in Mesopotamia and the Levant, and is gearing up for a run at the great prize - the fight for control over Mecca and Medina.

The Socionomic Lens
Saudi Stock Exchange (
Applying the socionomic model to the KSA, it looks like we will get to find out just how robust the Kingdom's governing structures are. I don't have EWI's formal wave structure available to share and have enough years of missing wave counts to hold off on providing you my amateur input, but if this is just the beginning of a much larger decline, look for some extreme outcomes on the Arabian peninsula.

No matter what follows, the decline from the September highs has been significant, and as Vadim Pokhlebkin puts it in this short video from EWI, a terrorist attack hitting right at, or near the bounce, of a significant low, fits right in with other high-profile terrorist attacks (note also the focus on the Charlie Hedbo attack and zero mention of the killing of the Saudi General):

One reason socionomics is so powerful is it keeps us from getting caught up in the headlines of the moment. Keep that same distance when pondering world events and make sure you are not letting yourself be distracted with shiny emotionally charged events while they work to other purposes in the shadows.

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