Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Catastrophic Abundance


Scenario planning using socionomics, peak oil, and megapolitics
Catastrophic Abundance, Kindle ebook


Let's end 2014 with a blast from the past.  About seven years ago I wrote and published an ebook entitled "Catastrophic Abundance."  I self-published it as a .pdf and sold a fair number of copies.  I let the site go dormant several years back, but believe now is a good time to dust it off and return it to publication.  You can check out old blog posts related to this theme here if you want a feel for the concept.

The book began as a way for me to flesh out the three key aspects of the model I use to make sense of the world and world events.  Those three aspects are socionomics, megapolitics, and peak oil

While I've come to rely a bit more heavily on socionomics these days, I continue to regard megapolitics as relevant (in short, it is a way of describing how violence and the ability to use violence shapes our world), and yes, in spite of the many claims that it has been "debunked" or disproven, I continue to believe peak oil (the engineering definition of peak oil, not the mass market version, which means the easy and cheap oil is dwindling) will remain relevant and the oil markets subject to wild swings (such as we are seeing today) as expensive oil is very vulnerable to the price crashes inherent in oversupply situations that develop during recessions and depressions (due to the capital costs associated with this kind of advanced extraction work).

The model is described in some detail and I've provided scenarios to help you war game how you might handle situations in the areas of Shelter, Energy, Transportation, and Community/Government.

I have made only a few edits to the text from the 2007 edition, updating the oil production graphic for the U.S. and cleaning up a few things, but otherwise I have left the description of the model and the scenarios intact, for better or worse.

If you are an Amazon Prime customer, I've made it available for free on Kindle Unlimited.  For the rest of you, I do plan to run a promotion and offer it as a free book for a few days in the near future, so if you don't want to spend the $2.99 to purchase it, keep an eye on the blog, I'll keep you in the loop.

Here's wishing you a happy, successful, and lucky 2015. I think we are going to need our fair share of luck in the coming years.

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