The last post was a wee bit disjointed. I am having some troubles coalescing my thoughts.
Here is where I am stuck - I continue to use the socionomic model as my guide to the general lay of the land, so to speak. Having been witness, as you all have, to the tech bubble and the housing bubble, and living in the waning days of the Big Government Bubble, the idea that mass herding effects drive events is not hard to accept.
Where I am stumbling is really what to say about, and how to prepare for, events in the early days of a steep and quick downturn in mood, when we are swept up in the vast river of mood and have to grab at a branch floating by just to stay afloat. I still agree with a variety of analysts out there that financial markets and the world system in general is quite vulnerable to a significant dislocation. Our systems are brittle and a mass stampede away from "risk" and away from trust, good will, harmony, a generally honest government, and all the other emotions that were considered as "givens" as our current way of life established itself, could result in some big failures, big dislocations, big headaches and, sadly, big violence.
I am also fairly comfortable with where this tide will carry us - a lot of violence, possibly insurrections, a severe degradation in trust between unlike groups, the degradation of civil structures, the rise of organized private violence in areas, mass poverty as the enormous debts run up during the last few decades comes unwound, the rise of angry religious cults, and in general, an ugly 14th Century feel to a lot of things.
I am not comfortable with is this ongoing rally period in the sense that I am not good at gauging how to take advantage of it via the markets or via positioning myself in a social or even geographic sense. Frankly, back when I was actively trading, I sucked at these types of markets. Now, not being in the market at the moment allows me to ponder what to do should we get this dislocation to the downside I expect.
Why worry about it, you ask? Well, the thing is, many of the choices and decisions that get made in a time of crisis or as a "temporary" fix, have a bad habit of sticking around and becoming the new structures we build our stories and societies around when we pass through the tear-down phase of the bear mentality and get back into a building-up, bullish mentality as a society. And frankly, I expect the tear-down to be significant when Primary Wave 3 engages to the downside.
When I recommend being a bridge-builder and active member in your local area, I am thinking in terms of you being like a seed that sprouts after a fire devastates a forest. Lot's of other competing organisms are out there. Much of the population seems to long for a final authoritarian clamp-down in this country. As a beliver in the Republic and as a believer in the Bill of Rights and Constitution, I continue to be sickened as policy after policy comes out of D.C., and frankly, out of political capitals around the world, that leverage technologies to spy on, harass, and crush those opposed to whatever public/private looting regime is in place at the time (Jon Corzine, et al).
Being a strong citizen, being someone who helps out others, who shows that free individuals can move mountains when they work well together, who values liberty - that is something that I hope can help offset this coming black tide. No guarantees, of course, but your decisions and actions in the coming Crisis will matter, it will help shape the mold into which our melted society will be recast in the years to come, a society that will then have to face Supercycle Wave C, but that is a tale for a different day...