Thursday, December 29, 2011

A Review of Socionomic Trendspotting for 2011

In January, I layed out the socionomic trends I expected to see play out over 2011 in terms of the "Aspects of Social Polarity" from The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior by Robert Prechter.  Let's take some time here at the end of the year (how the hell did it get to be the end of 2011 already?) to go over the trends and see where I screwed up and where I was on track.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Prechter on CNBC

Almost sterotypical lead-in by Ms. Bartiromo, but nice summation of both the socionomic view of things as well as a market snapshot.

Boo-yah on Prechter demolishing the record earnings myth. Worth your time.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Cracked Gets Socionomics (Sort of)

If the flailings of the Eurocrats and the Banksters are not enough to elicit dark laughter from you, you can always turn to the lighter fair offered up at Cracked. While the title is a bit overblown, as one would expect from a site that gets a lot of mileage out of video game humor and drunk jokes, it does show that maybe, just maybe, the socionomic way of thought is creeping into the mainstream:

7 Bizarre Trends That Predict an Economic Collapse
By: Pauli Poisuo, Cracked
If you popped out of a time machine at a random moment in history, how would you know whether or not the country was in a recession? There'd be obvious signs, like lots more ads for payday loan joints and offers to buy your gold for pennies on the dollar. But there are less obvious, much weirder clues all around you. After all, did you know that when the economy is bad...

Reasons #5, #3 and #1 jumped out as very socionomic-ish and #2 jives pretty well too.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Back in the Saddle

Apologies for the complete silence for several months.  I've had a tremendous number of irons in the fire, between kids, new day job responsibilities and trying to flesh out various options for one or more "crash business(es)" should the economy go sideways in a big way.

Part of the paralysis on getting posts completed and up has been the ongoing expectation that equity markets are going to catch up with my personal interpretation of where I think social mood is heading and that once we got going with the decline we could begin to survey the landscape for how to avoid too much damage and get ready to think about picking up the various pieces.

It has been like Waiting for Godot, so I'll wait no longer and give you my survey of where we are and where we could be heading should this amorphous beast we call social mood plunge deeply into net negative territory.  I am looking at these particular aspects as it is my opinion that these will help frame the language and actions that will be chosen to act our, or express, the deepening negative mood.

1.  The bando theme I followed for some time several years back looks to be finally stirring to life.  A "Bando," in my interpretation, is someone who occupies a home that has been abandoned or foreclosed on and then left neglected.  I can also apply to people who have been foreclosed on, but who remain in the house as they have not been served or removed by the Sherriff for various reasons.

Well the Occupy Movement is looking to take that concept nationally.  One expression of that can be found via Occupy Our Homes, and their work to encourage people to "tak[e] back our neighborhoods from the banks."  If nothing else, it has Bank of America sweating a bit, which always makes me smile.

Long term implication:  When entire rotten edifice of bad debts begins to truly unwind, expect the newly (and no so newly) jobless, the broke and the angry to stop staring at vacant homes and begin occupying them.  If these occupations get formalized in some way down the road, say via elections of radical third party candidates, then get ready for a wild ride in terms of proving title and expect a huge impact on real estate transactions in general.  This may wind up being much more of a problem in some areas (say, Vegas?) than others, but at the very least expect a lot less respect for the rule of law in this arena, until the law changes.  Hey, if corporate persons don't have to obey the law, why should corporeal persons?

2.  A trend I worried over back when the Iraq war was raging full tilt could come back to haunt us and that is the vulnerability of infrastructure to attack.  The vast majority of major infrastructure in the U.S. was built during a time of enormous optimism and positive mood.  Vast numbers of electrical substations, waterworks, power lines, bridges, etc. are exposed and could easily be disrupted should people or groups of people get angry enough to try it, especially if they feel they have nothing to lose by doing it.

Watch as thousands upon thousands of soldiers, sailors and marines return to private life in the teeth of a depression (and yes, we are IN ONE right now, just the early innings of one).  We've worried for years that if even the tiniest of percentages of soldiers trained in urban combat and counterterrorism efforts turn that knowledge loose here at home, you can expect the lights to flicker off on occasion, expect roads to be tough to travel and in general expect a lot more uncertainty in terms of basic utilities.  Get ready for disruption.  It is coming.

3.  MF Global.

I can't even express to you how shocked I am that such a key player in the finance realm could have misappropriated client funds to the tune of either  $1.2 billion or $600 million depending on whom you believe.  This is the gravest of sins in the brokerage world and it reeks of cronyism that Corzine was running the firm when it imploded.

Talk about destruction of trust.  No one who has money in "the market" is safe.  Period.  You can trust your broker all you want, but no one and nothing is safe and for those with real money in the markets, they have to be sweating bullets. 

Where can you turn?  What do you do with your money?  Who is next?
The evisceration of all things financial is on the horizon.  Who will be the next MF Global?  When the next wave hits, expect the impacts to reach deeply into peoples' pensions, 401(k)'s and savings and expect those people to be very, very angry about that.

4.  It is not all doom and gloom.  One good thing about declines is that ossified traditions get smashed and new and vital institutions can grow up from the ashes and rubble.  Keep you eye on science, especially medical science.  There is a growing insurgency known, among other monikers, as "personal science" or "the quantified self."  More and more people are realizing that big box science, especially health care, is not built to help people stay healthy, it is built to take sick people and process them like a widget.  The incentives are not there for preventive medicine or for non-Big Pharma type solutions to medical problems.  With the ability to track data, individuals are learning to tweak their diet and their habits to produce sometimes remarkable improvements in health and well-being.  Big Science doesn't like it and calls it anecdote or pseudo-science.  Those that see vast improvements in their life call it miraculous in some cases.  And in an era of net negative mood, "experts" are going to take a fierce beating in all fields.

This is very disturbing to the Powers That Be.  When you decide to be your own doctor, to be your own priest, to do for yourself (what used to be called a Good American, or the Pioneer Spirit) then you are unplugging from the Matrix and, at least for a time, the backlash might be fierce. 

Famliarize yourself with the quantified self tools.  In an era where access to health care might become uneven, to say the least, be ready to study yourself and keep yourself healthy.

5.  Iran.  Keep an eye on the current rumblings and the ongoing secret war that is already underway there.  This could blow up in a big, big, big way.

In Conclusion

I'll try to be better about posting.  We shall see.  Don't get caught up in the day to day news, but do keep an eye on the trends.  We are building the grooves in our minds down which the river of fear and anger that will flow in the coming years.  Will the Occupy movement flame out or turn into a Third Party?  Will war overseas and domestic terrorism shake your life and your career?  Will corporations that look solid as a rock crumble into bankruptcy overnight when the stress becomes too great?

Be ready and be ready to face the challenges with a smile and a plan to help your little patch of the globe get along a little better.  Times like this don't come around often.  How you react will help tell the tale of your life.