Tuesday, September 20, 2011

People On Ludes Should Not Drive

One of the tenets of socionomics (as I read it) is that during periods of net positive mood bias, especially the massively optimistic phase that metastisized in the 1990s, a People will turn to caffeine, sugar, uppers and other stimulants to accentuate the buzz and excitement of a Bull era.

As we transition to a deeply net negative mood era, one can expect the "uppers" industry (both legal and illegal) to suffer, while "downers" get a new lease on life. 

One example of this can be found in a recent National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH).  This survey is a great example of using a headline to simplify complex behavior: 

National survey shows a rise in illicit drug use from 2008 to 2010
SAMHSA News Release, 8 September 2011
The use of illicit drugs among Americans increased between 2008 and 2010 according to a national survey conducted by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA). The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) shows that 22.6 million Americans 12 or older (8.9-percent of the population) were current illicit drug users. The rate of use in 2010 was similar to the rate in 2009 (8.7-percent), but remained above the 2008 rate (8-percent).

So, there you have it.  People continue to do drugs even when the Powers That Be say they shouldn't and the number of people is increasing according to this survey.

However, digging deeper, you can detect socionomics at work:

...An increased rate in the current use of marijuana seems to be one of the prime factors in the overall rise in illicit drug use. In 2010, 17.4 million Americans were current users of marijuana - compared to 14.4 million in 2007. This represents an increase in the rate of current marijuana use in the population 12 and older from 5.8-percent in 2007 to 6.9-percent in 2010...

...The number of current methamphetamine users decreased by roughly half from 2006 to 2010 -- from 731,000 people age 12 and older (0.3-percent) to 353,000 (0.1-percent). Cocaine use has also declined, from 2.4 million current users in 2006 to 1.5 million in 2010...

Now, from what my friends and the cops who taught my DARE class many years ago tell me, the effects of marijuana are generally to slow things down a bit, while meth and coke tend to pep one up.

The Socionomist has had a number of outstanding research papers on the Drug War and Marijuana Prohibition over the last year or so and I suggest you review them.  The social trends driving the passions behind the drug war and drug use in general seem to be shifting and we may not recognize the legal landscape when it comes to drugs, booze and other mood-altering techniques.

In a recent issue of either the Elliott Wave Theorist or the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, it was suggested that one way to play this move towards downers would be to open a micro-distillery.  Not a bad idea at all in my opinion.  Might be time to check the laws in your state regarding micro-distilleries and then try and hunt down Grandpa's recipe for White Lightning.

And as more and more folks turn to downers, always recall the words of wisdom from Jeff Spicoli in Fast Times at Ridgemont High, a movie made during another net-negative mood period (1982):  People on Ludes should not drive.


g said...

if you were to check out a marijuana seed catalog, under the category termed quality of high, you would find an organic pharmacology already exists. the affects of marijuana are vast including narcotic-like pain relief, bodily relaxation, bodily stimulation, mental stimulation, mental focus, mental clarity, sociability, creativity, etc.

Globalization and the War of Drugs has driven cultivation techniques and the increase in genetics. Hybrids, combining equatorial strains known for potency and mental states with temperate strains known for hardiness and bodily effects. the result is a larger genetic pool that can be grown under a more wide range of conditions, and more affects on both the body and consciousness.

I would add as a side note that commercial marijuana cultivation makes "urban farming" seem like hobby gardening when it comes to highly productive micro operations and regimentation of water and organic matter just as two examples. further, marijuana cultivation and distribution exists as informal distributed networks of highly productive micro operations. but hey...I am just a pot head. only one step down from a meth addict. not an internet pundit.

David said...

I surely hope "g" is right, and so is the Socionomics Institute regarding the end of prohibition.


I've never seen someone stoned on pot become violent. Others may have, but I've not.

I carry, however, a visible and tactile reminder of what that other, currently legal depressant does to people. I never saw the fist used to sucker-punch me that was wielded by a drunken frat boy, an assault that was unprovoked and angers me still, decades later.

The one thing that will always stand in the way of ending prohibition is the relative ease of pot cultivation. While personal production of beer is a tax-free activity, it's a hassle. Personal distillation remains illegal (as tax evasion) though private stills are widely available for purchase, and it too is a hassle.

Pot cultivation looks easier, and a shift from taxable alcohol to untaxed private pot production does not serve the self-interest of our rulers. Discussions of legalizing the pot trade and taxing the hell out of it are based on false premises.

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