Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Defense on the Field

I've been thinking a lot lately about what comes next.  Events in Europe continue to weave a pattern and build a story expressing extreme negative mood.  Here in the U.S., the popularity of El Senor Presidente and the ladies and gentlemen making up the Senate and House continue to plumb new lows.  Items like that continue to show, in my opinion, that we are going to see the elites in politics and finance discredited to a degree most can't envision right now. 

I viewed Robert Prechter's video presentation of his August Theorist recently. Watching him step through not just the bear case, but his projections for the near future makes for one amazing presentation.  This only adds to the conviction that we best hang on tight.  The overlay between current equity market patterns and the patterns formed back in the 1930's are striking.  If his projections are correct, we have several more years until the "ideal" date for the bottom is reached and there will be massive unrest and uncertainty in society and politics between here and there.

Down in the trenches, we can see how the stress of this uncertain environment is making itself felt.  Here is a Google Trends result for the search terms "apply food stamps"

And here is a Trends result for the search terms "buy seeds"

I view these as important as they relate to food.  I may be pushing it here, but if we are all subject to mass herding and subconscious survival impulses as posited by socionomics, I'd expect food and food security to be a primal urge that would need expression in uncertain times.  Even though most people are not going to grow more than a trace fraction of food in their own garden, this series of "higher highs and lower lows" year-over-year from 2007, give a glimpse into the collective mind. 

The upward trend of the "apply food stamps" search terms is another indicator of stress.  Expect that one to go exponential soon.
I hope and assume you have your defensive positions in place.  For the few readers with considerable wealthy out there, you are probably as well hedged as you are going to be.  For the rest of us, defensive positions will mean a lot of things in addition to money.  These are things I've harped on before - know your neighbors, try to build up a network of friends you can rely upon, be active in making your community, your neighborhood or at least yourself resilient, have a few gardening tools on hand, pick up a few handy skills - you never know what you are going to need to be able to barter or trade in the coming years as we prepare to accelerate the plunge to lows in markets and mood that most can't picture right now.

If your defense is not set up yet - do it.  Then, while others are scrambling, you can begin to plan to go on offense at the bottom.  We are going to be able to build the foundation for great fortunes and great success in a few short years.  But we have to be able to ride the storm out between now and then.

Batten down the hatches and best of luck.

No comments: