Friday, August 19, 2011

You Are Here

For those who are not Elliott Wave subscribers, I wanted to post this chart, giving you an idea of what kind of potential we have for a plunge if the break in the long-term trendlines is sustained.  This is an older chart, but gives you the picture of where we can go from here - deep into Free Fall territory.

More to come as I get time, but there are multiple levels we need to be planning on. First, obviously, is the financial and markets level - where do you put your money, what happens to your money or equities or bonds if the bank fails or a systemic crash won't let you access your account to trade or a moratorium is put in place by governments. The next level is community - what happens to you if you can't get to your bank account or you get fired and you still have a high debt load and low savings and unemployment insurance dries up, or this happens to ten of your neighbors along with city services drying up. The other level will be political - national, state and local - and what panicked decisions at high levels may mean for you now and ten years from now.

The problem is we still don't know what is going to happen when the big decline comes. I still don't have clarity on the politics that may ferment out (secession? radical parties? a decade-long muddle through? all the above?) nor am I clear on what will happen to those huge numbers of folks still living paycheck to paycheck, who are doing fine now, but couldn't keep paying the mortgage three months after they lost their jobs.

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