Thursday, August 18, 2011

This is not 2008

Well, as Bernard Baruch once put it, the market fluctuated again today, this time heavily to the downside.

But don't worry, this isn't 2008, just ask an expert:

Is This Lehman Again? No, But It Sure Feels Like It

by Jeff Cox, CNBC
More than whether the European debt crisis is exploding, or if the US is re-entering a recession, or what the Federal Reserve's next move is, the markets want to know one thing: Is this another Lehman?

..."You've got a risk-off trade and it's on steroids right now," Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets, told CNBC. "What we're having right now is panic, indiscriminate selling. History has proven these are not the days that you want to be selling on."

Hogan flatly declared "this is not 2008" and cautioned against joining the selling fray.

"These are the days you want to sit back and...make your wish list and look for those opportunities where stocks got washed out in this baby-out-with-the-bathwater environment," he said.

Well, if the bright boys and girls over at EWI are correct in their wave counts, then Messr. Hogan is correct, this is not 2008. This is 1937 or thereabouts, if not back in the weeks following the popping of the South Sea Bubble.

Markets are falling, the very solvency of the entire world system is being called into question, sentiment is cratering and it leaves one to wonder, is Mr. Prechter correct, and that we are headed into Free-Fall Territory (I've pasted in a video and some links directly from EWI, just in case you are interested in picking up some of the free offerings):

Prechter Discusses Market Forecasts on CNBC Closing Bell

"The problem is deeper than just a minor recovery or a minor recession."

Robert Prechter joins CNBC hosts Bill Griffeth and Maria Bartiromo on Closing Bell to talk about the still-unfolding forecasts presented in his New York Times bestseller Conquer the Crash.

We invite you to watch the interview below. Then download Robert Prechter’s free report that uses an 84-year study of stock market values to help you prepare for and understand today’s critical market juncture.

Download Robert Prechter’s Free Report To Discover How You Can Prepare For Today’s Critical Market Juncture

While we're sure you're reading countless articles and analysis about the market's recent volatility, if you're not reading what EWI's subscribers read, you're missing the valuable, prescient perspective contained in each issue of Robert Prechter's market letter, The Elliott Wave Theorist.

Access Robert Prechter’s free report and read in-depth analysis -- including an 84-year study of stock values -- that will help you prepare for and understand today's critical market juncture.

Download Robert Prechter's Free Report.


David said...

Michael, I wonder if even Bob P. is willing to publicly state what he thinks is likely.

For what little it matters, I placed my view on display at a couple years ago in "The Crystal Meth Economy." I still believe that a lifetime of credit creation (fractional reserve and otherwise) created an entire artificial economy stuffed with industries for which there is no endogenous, natural demand. I liken it to growing roses in a greenhouse in Fargo ND in winter. Only so long as the power is on will the flowers flourish. No power, dead flowers.

What happens when almost all economic participants lose access to money, while the ruling clique (increasingly seen as naught but criminals) enjoys its monopoly on money creation?

I still revert to Say's Law. Consumption that precedes production yields poverty. The modern debt economy did nothing but let some people borrow and eat the cake while the cake makers believe they still "Have" their cake.

The cake is a lie.

Flagg707 said...

The cake is a lie indeed!

I've been stressing over the credit creation piece because no one really knows (or maybe wants to acknowledge) how deep the tentacles of debt run. Look at the quiet freakout parts of the gold market a doing now that Chavez has said he wants to repatriate gold on deposit at various banks. That gold serves as the base reserve for all kinds of paper gold products. When you yank those reserves, what happens then? And that is just a microcosm of an entire world economy built on debt.

As for Prechter, yeah, I can't think he'd say out loud where he thinks this is going. But every month when I open up the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast and see that top line for the Grand SuperCycle Count with the "Significance To" U.S. Survival, I think I have an idea of where he and his folks think this thing will head.

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