Monday, January 3, 2011

Trendspotting 2010 - A Review

Well, 2010 has wrapped up and the socionomic "gritty reboot" I expected in my "Socionomic Trendspotting 2010 - The Gritty Reboot" post did not pan out.  Let's do an after-action report and see where I was plain wrong or maybe just early...

1.  "The financial crisis will return as toxic assets that were papered over and wished away return to devastate financial firms. This time, the financial firms will have no more silver bullets to spend with Congress."

Way off base here.  Mood held out much better than I anticipated.  I figured the Elliott Wave pattern would play out rather rapidly and we could get on with the business of collapse and rebuilding.  Either I am wrong and we are building a base for an enormous Bull Market or else this Grand Supercycle top is milking the U.S. population for every thin dime.

Plus, the financial firms have all the freaking bullets - silver or otherwise - that they would ever need for Congress.  I guess I let my own personal mood sway me there.  That said, why would they need bullets when they have truckloads of dollars, junkets and hookers to offer Congress?  Which leads me to another singificant miss...

2.  The Show Trials Begin.  ...I think that the legalistic culture of the United States will find natural outlet in show trials of “them” as the financial and social system unravels. Financiers, banksters, lobbyists, politicos on the wrong side of the current mob opinion and worker-bees of the Big Government Machine will find themselves hauled before tribunals or special courts founded to investigate the devastating wave of bankruptcies and financial hooliganism that will be running rampant as 2010 unwinds...

Wrong.  Again, maybe my own personal mood and outrage at the sky-high levels of fraud perpetrated upon the Old Republic by the banksters colored this outlook, but good Lord, does Wall Street rent the Justice Department by the hour or do they have some sort of monthly package deal.  The silence from prosecutors has been deafening.  These petty little "insider trading" scams they've brought charges on over in Hedge Fund Land are ludicrous and pathetic compared to the crimes they could have been pursuing with the big banks.

There were "special courts" set up - to screw homeowners, of course.

I can't imagine that 2011 will see any significant prosecutions of bankster types, except maybe for political type investigations opened up by the Republican Congress. The Repubs rolled over so easily in 2008 that I doubt they do more than try to score some face time on what I figure will be an increasingly anger-filled mediasphere.

3. The U.S. Nation-State Hollows Out.  That the coming crash will challenge the federal government’s finances and totally devastate most state, county and local balance sheets is pretty much baked in to the coming crisis. What happens when government employee checks start bouncing and when services are slashed or privatized will color the latter part of 2010...

I'll give myself a C- here.  The realization of the coming problem started coming into focus towards the end of the year.  The real hollowing out is coming.  This will be a big one, folks.

4.  Memes

We discussed a few memes I proposed might be flitting out and about in the social organsim, feasting on our anger and fear. 

Cults:  I have not seen significant cult activity making news this year.  I still think this is coming, but with the elevated mood of 2010, it has not found deep purchase yet.

The 2012 (end of the world version) Mayan Calendar Rollover:  This is rising.  There are a lot of new-age books on this theme.  It is ripe for a convergence with the cult meme.  2012 should be a hell of a year on a lot of fronts.  This millenarian aspects of whatever December 21, 2012 brings will be fascinating to watch (preferably from behind bullet-proof glass).

Gang Wars:  Again, nothing that seemed to be an uptick over existing trends.  A big miss here.


In short, 2010 was a lot, lot better in terms of mood, personal safety and economics than I expected. 

This is good thing. 

2010 saw a lot of organizing going on amongst "prepper" groups who hope to have systems in place to build resilient communities, transition towns, lifeboats or whatever you want to call them.  These systems will give a positive outlet to much of the fear that will swirl once we see mood truly roll over into negative territory (or they will wither up and blow away if we have a huge move into positive-bias mood).  Giving people positive things to focus upon - growing a bit of your own food, interacting in a positive way with your neighbors and communities, thinking about ways to deal with shortages, etc. will mean a lot when TSHTF.  You want as many positive/constructive memes out there for groups to latch onto to.  There will be plenty of negative stuff floating around.  Throwing a few ring buoys into the stormy seas is the least we can be doing.

A Socionomic Trendspotting 2011 blog post iwll be forthcoming. Hopefully (not?) this one will be more accurate.  This coming year I hope to get a bit more technical and start incorporating chart action with my evaluations.  No promises as my day job continues to be hectic, but I'll try.

Here's wishing you and yours a Happy, Safe and Prosperous New Year.

No comments: