Tuesday, December 28, 2010

The Thin Blue Line as a Socionomic Warning

This is an ugly statistic, that could get uglier should mood in the U.S. slide more deeply into a net negative-bias:

Law Enforcement Fatalities Spike Dangerously in 2010
issued by the Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund
Following a twoyear decline, law enforcement fatalities in 2010 spiked to 160. This was an increase of nearly 40 percent compared to last year, when 117 officers were killed in the line of duty...

Some of these numbers are from an increase in traffic-related deaths (car crash, struck while outside their vehicle, etc.). One statistic that I think should be especially monitored is firearms-related fatalities, especially the ambush killings. Ambush killings show a focused rage against the most visible piece of the power structure - cops. I think this will be a proxy for a lot of anti-establishment violence in the coming years. The legislators make the often stupid laws and the cops get to eat the anger those laws engender. Pile on top of that a socionomically predicted move towards more anger and a desire to break things apart and we could see a lot more dead officers, should 2011 be the year that mood plunges.

I fished through the basic data, looking for trends that might match up with stock market prices.  There appear to be some correlations at times to declines in stock prices (2001 being a big example, tied I assume to the 9/11 attacks).  I am going to look for data specific to violent deaths of officers and see if that subset (ignoring traffic deaths) shows sensitivity to mood as measured by stock price signals.

1 comment:

David said...

Militarism of the police (due to the idiotic Drug War and the revolving door between police and National Guard/Army Reserve that is staffing the occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan) is "feeding" the feedback loop.


The police need the citizenry more now than ever, yet social forces and political folly are driving them farther and farther from the mainstream.

This does not bode well for people seeking the instant Authority of wearing a badge.