Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Building a Better Sociometer

Socionomics has proven its worth over the last decade. As this discipline gains momentum, we continue to search for better and better mood meters. The equity markets have been excellent proxies and their use is well chronicled in socionomic literature.

Well, as the Communications/Informational Revolution continues to unfold and social networking reshapes how communication unfolds, a researcher from Indiana may have stumbled upon a way to gauge and monitor mood in near real-time:

Twitter Can Predict the Stock Market
by Lisa Grossman, Wired Science Blog
The emotional roller coaster captured on Twitter can predict the ups and downs of the stock market, a new study finds. Measuring how calm the Twitterverse is on a given day can predict the direction of changes to the Dow Jones Industrial Average three days later with an accuracy of 87.6 percent.

“We were pretty astonished that this actually worked,” said computational social scientist Johan Bollen of Indiana University-Bloomington. The new results appear in a paper on the arXiv.org preprint server...

This is some very exciting stuff. The correlations will somehow have to be tied back to Elliott Wave forms, I assume, but it is very encouraging that research continues to validate the socionomic premise, even when it isn't trying to.

1 comment:

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