Tuesday, June 29, 2010

NIL?

No incumbents left?

Seems like a radical notion to float before the upcoming elections given the track record of the politburoesque nature of incumbents getting re-elected. After a shakeup in the South Carolina primaries, some are starting to think that maybe, just maybe, we may be on the verge of a big shift in the political scene:

South Carolina: Outlier or National Precursor?
By Patrick Caddell and Kendra Stewart
The character of South Carolina has always been distinguished by one very important trait – preserving the status quo. Except for once in a blue moon when it does something truly revolutionary, like starting a civil war. In keeping with this character it has historically been most resistant to reform...

...So what is to be made of this month’s primary and run-off elections?

This past Tuesday represents a New Day in South Carolina politics. A conservative, Bible-belt state known for its past resistance to civil rights and its current lack of women in elected office (ranked 50th on this front) strongly supported an Indian-American woman for the state’s highest office and an African-American man for an overwhelmingly white Congressional district. Even more interesting in both cases these candidates were chosen by the Republican primary voters over white men representing the epitome of the South Carolina “good-ole boy” establishment. Beyond this, in the primary and run-off elections, we witnessed a wholesale dispatchment of some of the best known politicians of both parties and the selection of a number of improbable candidates, highlighted by Alvin Greene’s Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate...

The socionomic model tells us that when mood enters a negative phase, we can expect those holding office to get the blame and be removed, one way or another:

If mood declines at the rate and to the depths I expect, we could very well see an enormous ousting of incumbents this fall. We still don't know if mood will collapse before then - though I personally expect it - and political changes can be tough to call sometimes as we still aren't sure where the anger will be channeled, who the scapegoats will be and how the social and political structures will hold up under the pressure.

South Carolina may just wind up being an outlier if we continue to muddle along in this mildly net-negative mood phase, but should the markets head south, then all bets are off. For those of you planning a political career, now might be the time to start building those networks. 2012 could be your year...

1 comment:

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