Monday, November 2, 2009

Socionomics: Nonfiction Psychohistory

For you SF fans out there, Asimov's psychohistory concept is a compelling vision of what a discipline such as socionomics might some day provide.

For those of you just wanting a way to more accurately chart the murky waters of the coming dark days of the Great Bear Market, socionomics can at least provide you with the tenor of the coming times and a method of judging when to pull back and later when the time is right, what to invest your time and resources into - and why.

As an example, take a look at this graphic from the November issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:

Courtesy EWI, used with permission

Goldman is already becoming the scapegoat (and with very good reason, I might add) for the coming decline. Make sure you don't become collateral damage - either through ruined investments, ruined careers or dependence on financing from outfits like Goldman Sachs. Socioniomics gives a framework to explain what is coming and at least provide you with the kinds of events that will decorate that chart twenty years from now. Extrapolate this to other industries and you begin to see the value of the practice.

If you are in investment banking, this should give you pause. This young Bear Market we find ourselves in will be of an order of magnitude more intense - and that means a more intense reaction to High Finance and a correspondingly worse fallout.

If you are into investigative journalism, or aspire to producing documentaries or are wondering what professions to enter into, that graphic tells a different tale.

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