Thursday, August 27, 2009

Socionomics in Action

Well, The Socionomist is only four issues old and has scored an early predictive hit. In the July Issue there was an extensive article by Euan Wilson entitled "The Coming Collapse of Modern Prohibition."

Mr. Wilson presented data on how the ingestion of drugs/alcohol are often restricted by law during periods of positive mood and decriminalized or legalized in periods of negative mood:

"History shows that mood governs society's tolerance for recreational drugs. A rising social mood produces prohibition of substances such as alcohol and marijuana; a falling period of social mood produces tolerance and relaxed regulation. In the case of alcohol, the path from prohibition to decriminalization became littered with corruption and violence as the government waged a failed war on traffickers. Eventually, as mood continued to sour, the government finally capitulated to public cries for decriminalization as a means to end the corrpution and bloodshed.

We predict a similar fate for the prohibition of marijuana, if not the entire War on Drugs. The March 1995 Elliott Wave Theorist first forecasted the Drug War's repeal at the end of the bear market, and in 2003, EWT stated that during the decline, "The drug war will turn more violent. Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized."

Our friends south of the border have endured levels of violence greater than what U.S. soldiers faced in Iraq over the last half-deade. Mood is finally changing enough to get this:

Mexico quietly decriminalizes drug use
Now marijuana, cocaine, LSD, and heroin will be tolerated for personal use. It's part of a bid to free up resources and jail space so that authorities can focus efforts on big-time traffickers.
by Sarah Miller Llana, Christian Science Monitor
MEXICO CITY – In 2006, a Mexico initiative to decriminalize limited personal drug use set off a storm north of the border. The San Diego mayor called it “appallingly stupid.” Mexico was painted as a potential haven for drug tourism, the next Netherlands of Latin America.

The initiative, not surprisingly, quickly died.

Three years later, in the midst of a massive drug war that’s taken more than 11,000 lives and brought the US and Mexico into closer and more costly cooperation, the initiative has quietly become law. And there’s hardly a peep.

Now not just marijuana, but cocaine, LSD, and heroin will be tolerated for personal and limited use. That means about four joints, or half a gram of cocaine, or 50 milligrams of heroin. Bigger quantities, sales, and public consumption are still strictly forbidden...

What's changed in three years? Mood has shifted towards the negative. The death toll has skyrocketed in Mexico. The mass mentality was ripe for a change.

For those of us in El Norte, watch California. My guess is that they will be a "tipping point" state for outright defiance of the federal government and broad-spectrum legalization.

Action Items

Lot's of gray market small business opportunities here. Not being conversant with the recreational drug community, I'll just hit a few items I think you might be able to position yourself to take advantage of (others are much further along in ganjapreneurship than I could hope to be):

1. Custom rolling papers. This could be a good business even pre-legalization. As taxes have risen sharply on cigarettes, more and more people are turning to growing their own tobacco and rolling their own tobacco cigarettes. If you own a small machine shop, I imagine a robust, automated cigarette roller might be a design worth trying.

2. Medical Marijuana "lessons learned." For those of you who think you could be a consultant, compiling a book of "lessons learned" from the medical marijuana movement out West could be a big hit once full decriminalization comes along. Not just legal stuff, but interaction with customers and newbies to this product, categorizing various groups and watching side effects (and yes, I discount anything written about drug side effects put out by government agencies - they mean well, but much of it is absurd), and generally providing a marketing strategy for this coming wave of entrepreneurship.

3. Tapping into the vast "how to" underground that exists in growing dope, making LSD, etc.

I ain't gotta like it, but this is coming folks. Be thinking how best to either insulate yourself or how to help take advantage of it.

2 comments:

David said...

Hi Mike,
You don't have to be a pothead to benefit from ending the drug war. At least so far, the War on Terror has induced but a tiny fraction of the assaults on people minding their own business that the drug war has birthed. Even during Prohibition there was no acceptance of the cops kicking in doors during "no knock" raids. Such events have led police agencies to behave like a foreign army of occupation.

I prefer to avoid both legal and illegal drugs, but would welcome less risk from legalized assault that might come with ending the drug war.

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