Tuesday, July 28, 2009

The Dark Years

Thanks to Zero Hedge for pointing out this recent missive from Matterhorn Asset Management:

The Dark Years Are Here -

And speaking of collapse, I like Dr. Sornette's name for the major decline events. Wave Principle calls them Third Waves of high degree. Dr. Sornette calls them Dragon Kings (as opposed to mere Black Swans):

Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises
by Didier Sornette, International Journal of Terraspace Science and Engineering
We develop the concept of “dragon-kings” corresponding to meaningful outliers, which are found to coexist with power laws in the distributions of event sizes under a broad range of conditions in a large variety of systems. These dragon-kings reveal the existence of mechanisms of self-organization that are not apparent otherwise from the distribution of their smaller siblings. We present a generic phase diagram to explain the generation of dragon-kings and document their presence in six different examples (distribution of city sizes, distribution of acoustic emissions associated with material failure, distribution of velocity increments in hydrodynamic turbulence, distribution of financial drawdowns, distribution of the energies of epileptic seizures in humans and in model animals, distribution of the earthquake energies). We emphasize the importance of understanding dragon-kings as being often associated with a neighborhood of what can be called equivalently a phase transition, a bifurcation, a catastrophe (in the sense of RenĂ© Thom), or a tipping point. The presence of a phase transition is crucial to learn how to diagnose in advance the symptoms associated with a coming dragon-king. Several examples of predictions using the derived log-periodic power law method are discussed, including material failure predictions and the forecasts of the end of financial bubbles.

I realize that Dr. Sornette has played fast and loose with some Wave Principle basics and called them his own, but the man does have a mind for this stuff.

Sorry for the lack of original posts lately - I have several cooking in the pot, but the day job is keeping me hopping. Nothing new on the immediate action front - keep a positive frame of mind (not delusional a la' CNBC, Fox Bidness Newz, et al), enjoy each moment as best you can and prepare for the worst - it is coming.

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