Thursday, June 18, 2009

Secession and 4GW Theory

I've avoided discussing secession in the context of the U.S. in any great depth and probably will continue to do so. Most of the jabber about seceding (Texas, Alaska, Aztlan, New Confederacy, Vermont Republic, Cascadia, etc.) is just that - jabber.

That said, socionomic theory - which has been very accurate so far in the early days of this decline - indicates that secession and xenophobia should bubble up from mere talk to significant, ugly action as this enormous bear market regains its stride soon.

Bill Lind has been pondering the same topic and, as usual, has some insights worth thinking about.

On War #307: Calling President Davis
by Bill Lind
FJ NOTE: The old D-N-I site has changed. Bill Lind's works are now archived at GlobalGuerrillas. The link above takes you to a .pdf, scroll down to #307 for the proper citation.

...if America breaks up it is likely to do so along non-geographic lines. Fourth Generation theory suggests that the new primary identities for which people are likely to vote, work and fight will not be geographical. Rather, they will be cultural, religious, racial or ethnic, ideological, etc. Following the sorts of massacres, ethnic cleansings, pogroms and genocides such Fourth Generation civil wars usually involve, new geographically defined states may emerge. But their borders will derive from cultural divides more than geographic ones.

The fact that a second American civil war would be nastier than the first — itself no picnic — does not mean it won’t happen. That depends on whether the Washington Establishment can recognize it has a legitimacy problem, get its act together and provide competent governance. It is currently failing that test, and I expect it to continue to fail. Any member of the Establishment who dares subordinate court politics to the good of the nation or advocates more than very modest change quickly finds he is no longer a member of the Establishment...

...the idea of an American break-up is no longer off the charts. It may yet prove time for President Davis to think of returning to Richmond, and for New Urbanists to design some good castles."

Again, it all dovetails together under socionomic theory - secession, breakdown of larger structures built up during the bull market in mood, the move towards loyalty to tribes or local units, the building of physical walls and structuring localities for local food production.

I have no good advice for you. Watch for such movements. The federal government will retain immense powers for the foreseeable future. Do you jump on board with a secessionist party? Do you hold loyalty to the Union and pray that the elites will regain some sense of sanity? As crazy as it may sound, you may be forced to make a decision in the coming decade along those lines...

UPDATE: Speaking of walls and protecting "us" from "them," I think this company may be on the vaguard of an enormous new business model in the coming years - a combination of the socionomic themes of walls/barriers and the "Green" meme that is being used to express a lot of the angst and anger boiling up in this era of negative mood:

Site of Bussy St Georges Station (access to Disney Land Paris). This hedge was planted 10 years ago. [Courtesy Sinnoveg]

Created in 2004 within the Pépinières SOUPE Group, the SINNOVEG Company (Société d'Innovation Végétale) develops the following activities:

  • Research and development in landscape design
  • Securitizing of sites, goods and persons with concepts integrated in the environment
  • Research in cultivation of plants adapted to difficult situations.

This securitizing of sites with a natural concept is based on planting of thorny plants, weaved to each other and strongly bound to metallic elements strengthening the reinforcement.

This concept allows to fight against :

  • Intrusion
  • Burglary
  • vandalism
  • corporal accidents

These folks are a prime example of working with the waves that drive us all, not against them...

UPDATE 2: What's old is new again. This concept stirred up a memory of a history class long, long ago, on the use of hedges for both livestock enclosure and protection:

"...the Nervii, from early times, because they were weak in cavalry, (for not even at this time do they attend to it, but accomplish by their infantry whatever they can,) in order that they might the more easily obstruct the cavalry of their neighbors if they came upon them for the purpose of plundering, having cut young trees, and bent them, by means of their numerous branches extending] on to the sides, and the quick-briars and thorns springing up between them, had made these hedges present a fortification like a wall, through which it was not only impossible to enter, but even to penetrate with the eye..." - Julius Caeser, Commentaries, the Gallic Wars, Book II.

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