Thursday, June 4, 2009

A Couple of Nuggets

I have a few socionomics-related articles cooking in the pot as my work slowly becomes less hectic, but they will have to wait a few days.

In the meantime, I'd like to suggest checking out a recent series of posts over at John Robb's Globalguerrillas site and a quick, factual treatment of what a 4kT nuke's damage potential is. Sort of all over the place I know, but the nuke article is a good dose of reality to combat some of the more breathless fear-meme spreading articles that popped up recently and the "Standing Orders" for 4GW entities is great food for thought as well as a good roadmap of what you should prepare for.

Strategic Uses for Tactical Nukes—not!
by Geoffrey Forden, at ArmsControlwonk.com
...I certainly don’t want to imply that a 4 Kt nuke could not kill a lot of people. It certainly could. However, I have been thinking about whether or not North Korea might be able to use a few 4 kiloton (Kt) nuclear weapons—if that is their true yield—in what we in the West would consider tactical situations but in the context of the Korean peninsula would have strategic consequences. After all, it would seem that the US and South Korea would be in a very vulnerable position if the North launched an all-out invasion...

As an aside, we are in the middle of hosting a big series of conferences and workshops on nuclear material safeguards (part of the reason I haven't posted much recently, been busy teaching and helping with workshops). I want to flesh them out some, but I have some thoughts that I think are worth sharing in the near future.

Standing Orders for GlobalGuerrillas

Standing Order #1 Break Networks
Standing Order #2 Grow Black Economies
Standing Order #3 Virtualize Your Organization
Standing Order #4 Repetition is More Important Than Scale
Standing Order #5 Coopetition Not Competition
Standing Order #6 Don't Fork the Insurgency
Standing Order #7 Minimalist Rule Set Works Best
Standing Order #8 Self-replicate
Standing Order #9 Share or Copy Everything That Works
Standing Order #10 Release Early and Often
Standing Order #11 Co-opt, Don't Own, Basic Services

Note how the mindset and consequences of a negative social mood (especially a huge wave of that negativity, such as the one we find ourselves just entering) as theorized by socionomics play directly into these guiding principles for groups that would break down the current Order.

Interesting how it all comes together...

"If human thought is a growth, like all other growths, its logic is without foundation of its own, and is only the adjusting constructiveness of all other growing things. A tree cannot find out, as it were, how to blossom, until comes blossom-time. A social growth cannot find out the use of steam engines, until comes steam-engine-time." - Charles Fort, Lo!, 1931

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