Thursday, August 21, 2008

A Quick Roundup

Sorry for the lack of posts. A combination of work and other factors are cutting into blogging these days.

That said, it is sometimes difficult to know what to discuss. So much of what we've been talking about is coming to pass.

The credit "crunch" is deteriorating into a full-blown crisis. Again, I think the markets can hold on until late September or October, but reality is swiftly eating into the mass delusion that has kept this market afloat for far too long. Just watch what is happening to tax receipts in New York State and you'll get a feel for just how bad things are getting for the finance boyz.

Pakistan is burning, slowly, to the ground.

Russia commenced a smack-down on Georgia and then wisely pulled back, leaving support troops for the Ossetians and Abkhazians. Far from becoming a new 4GW theater, Georgia displayed an amazing lack of ability to prosecute a conflict they had been planning for years - they didn't even blow the Roki Tunnel to prevent or at least delay Russian intervention. Well, Europe better start teaching Russian in school. Unless they turn to nuclear power in a big way, they are well on their way to becoming a Russian energy colony.

And speaking of Russia, here's another must-read on how that country dealt with their first peak in oil production and the resulting collapse.

The Iran situation continues to bubble along. Again, I can't imagine how any of the parties involved could regard an attack on Iran as being in their interests, but I also expected a deal by now, so who knows. If an attack does occur, you best leave your place of work or residence the minute you hear about it and go buy yourself a bicycle and a stash of food. Fuel rationing will be following the bombs.

And what new to talk about? We've talked a bit about resilient communities/networked tribes but until the true shape of the crisis to come makes itself known, it is tough to talk more about it - they will develop based on the problems. I still worry a lot about how these early communities that will - that must - spring up to fill the gap when the current system collapses. How will they overcome local authorities and things like the existing zoning laws, laws on how tall plants can be in your yard (no Victory Garden for those of you in Omaha - you'll be fined and the city will cut it down), laws on light industry in city limits, etc. Allegiance to the current system is hardwired in most everyone. The cops will round up the leaders of nascent resilient communities just as quickly - if not more quickly - as they would a car thief. These types of folks are direct threats to things like the tax base and "growth." That's a much worse crime than mere car theft or drug dealing. Just when we'll need a burst of creative work, we'll be facing an angy and panicked political class, determined to crush those who would defy their authority.

We'll keep tracking the news and providing what insight we can here. In the meantime, keep you eyes open, keep networking in your community and get your mind ready for a major shift in how the world works.

No comments: