Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Georgia, Russia, South Ossetia: Russia Halting

UPDATE: If you are interested in some depth and context for this latest round of fighting in the Caucasus, please read Dmitry Orlov's latest post "The Trouble with Georgia" For those interested in how a once-wealthy population handles (or mishandles) the transition to chaos and poverty, the article is a must-read.

Looks like we'll be avoiding the worst-case scenario of a torched BTC Pipeline. That said, a torched U.S. reputation amongst small allies might result in its own problems soon...

Georgia: Why the Russians are Stopping
from Stratfor
Russia is offering a cease-fire in Georgia on Aug. 12. Russia has achieved its goals — demonstrating its ability to strike, destabilizing the Georgian government and proving the West’s inability to act in the Russian periphery. Furthermore, taking Georgia altogether would cross a line that Russia is not prepared to breach and nearly ensure action by Russia’s foes. But most of all, Russia simply does not want Georgia; Moscow does not want to administer Tbilisi, and it does not want to get involved in another prolonged conflict like that seen in Chechnya...

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