Friday, May 9, 2008

Zenpundit on 4GW in Mexico

A crime-scene technician inspects the car in which police Capt. Saul Peña López was slain Tuesday in Ciudad Juarez. He was the 15th officer slain in the city since the beginning of the year. (Fort Worth Star-Telegram)

A short and to-the-point post from Zenpundit on the continuing troubles down Mexico-way.

Taking the War to the Mexican State, 4GW Style
May 9th, 2008
Mexico’s equivalent to an acting FBI director was assassinated earlier on Thursday, most likely by Zetas or similarly skilled team of hitmen working for one of several of Mexico’s crime cartels currently being pressured by recently dispatched Mexican Army troops.

Reminiscient of attacks on the Italian state during the 1970’s and 1980’s by leftist Red Brigades and Mafia, the drug cartels of Mexico are hobbled neither by antiquated Marxist ideology nor old-time, rustic, crime family traditions. They are adaptive, professional, transnational in outlook and far better equipped than state police forces on either side of the border. Mexico’s corrupt political elite by contrast, cannot be bothered to restrain their greed enough to properly pay, train and arm the very security forces that defend their primacy.

Zenpundit is spot on, in my opinion, especially when he mentions the fact that the forces acting to hollow out the Mexican state are not self-blinded by ideology. They are after power and money. They are highly trained, well armed and well funded.

Friends, this spiral of violence really matters for the variety of reasons that we've discussed in Aztlan Rising? and The Bazaar of Violence, Open for Business in Mexico, not to mention the potential follow-on effects of Mexico transitioning from an oil exporter to an oil importer in PEMEX Numbers (by the way - the numbers we looked at in that post have only gotten worse).

3 comments:

MarmosetsMinuetsMinarets said...

This clearly is sufficient grounds to cancel my vacation tickets to Mexico, but beyond that I'm not too worried.

So people are assassinating Mexican government workers. So the Mexican government might collapse. This prospect does not fill me with shock. Corrupt governments do collapse sometimes.

Flagg707 said...

Corrupt governments certainly do collapse.

My worry centers on the fallout from such a collapse in Mexico. If we see a civil war or "Lebanonization" of Mexico, then it is guaranteed to spill over into Southern California, Texas, New Mexico and Arizona as rival factions battle for support, control of drug lanes to help fund their cause, etc.

Here's hoping my worries are overblown and that if Mexico does crash hard, it will remain contained south of the Rio Grande...

Anonymous said...

The narcotraficantes are the good guys and the corrupt, tax-sucking government is the bad guy, on both sides of the border.
The future is looking bright. I'd choose chaos and freedom over a police state and it's drug prohibition any day.