Tuesday, May 6, 2008

The Secession Meme Continues to Flourish

Image courtesy Strategic Forcasting, Inc.

Separatism is alive and well in Bolivia.

Bolivia: A Referendum and the Threat of Military Force
Stratfor
May 5, 2008
Bolivia’s Santa Cruz department passed a referendum May 4 that grants it the fundamental tools of independent statehood. The move leaves it up to Bolivian President Evo Morales to call the province’s bluff and decide whether to use military force to ensure Bolivia’s unity. If Morales decides to use force against the secessionist regions, he will risk destabilizing the country and may prompt neighboring countries to intervene.

The Bolivian department of Santa Cruz passed a declaration of autonomy by popular referendum May 4, with 85 percent of voters in support of the measure. Three other departments — Pando, Beni and Tarija — are expected to hold their own referendums in June. Designed to give Santa Cruz autonomy from the central government — and the policies of President Evo Morales, in particular — the referendum grants Santa Cruz the ability to sign treaties with foreign nations, form parliament, create a local police force and decide all matters related to land distribution...

Image courtesy Strategic Forcasting, Inc.

Notice how the separatist movement corresponds to fossil fuel deposits. This trend towards securing local resources at the expense of the larger political unit is classic negative-trend socionomics.

We should continue to look for these types of separatist ventures and/or coups in the future. For wealthy individuals and corporations, sponsoring secession movements through a variety of dummy fronts makes a lot of economic sense. Plus, there will be very real grievances held by local populations that could be used as an excuse for any coups or independence movements.

The FutureJacked short list for potential secession hot spots and the potential spoils to be gained, for those of you interested in funding or working to foment (via service in a mercenary company or an NGO used as a front agency):

Those are just three examples, in addition to Santa Cruz from Bolivia. If the world economy becomes as stressed as I expect it to this fall (I still think we'll have a reasonably stable late spring and early summer), this list will grow to include places you don't expect right now.

No comments: