Thursday, May 8, 2008

Georgia, Russia, Abkhazia and the Fallout from Kosovo

I'm swamped today and don't have time for a more in-depth analysis, but it looks like Georgia is going to pay the price for the support the U.S. and Europe gave Kosovo in seceding from Serbia:

Russian military threatens to boost Georgia force
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia may further increase troop numbers in the Georgian breakaway region of Abkhazia if Tbilisi builds up its forces near the conflict zone, the Russian defense ministry said on Thursday.

A Georgian government minister said this week Abkhazia was "very close" to war following Russia's announcement it was sending in hundreds of extra peacekeeping troops to counter what it called Tbilisi's plans for an attack...

Check out A New 4GW Theater on the Horizon? for a previous discussion of a Russian-Georgian throwdown.

Again, my rationale for caring is the fact that the BTC pipeline goes through Georgia. If Russia wanted to make a strong point - and boost the value of her oil sales - she might "accidentally" drop a few bombs on the pipeline to shut it down for a few weeks. Just something to consider.

No comments: