Thursday, April 3, 2008

Nice Socionomic Countertrend Indicator

As most of you know, I am working on an assumption that social mood (click here for a socionomics primer if this is new to you) peaked last year, as modeled by various equity market indices. Working on that assumption, I've been looking for a number of expressions of negative mood to begin manifesting. These include:
  • A wave of secessionist movements that provide serious challenges to established states

  • Negative themes in literature and movies (i.e. torture, critical acclamation of horror flicks, etc.)

  • Walls

The last item I think will be a particularly good marker for what I expect will be a decades long expression of negative social mood and anger. FYI, one great resource for the growth and use of walls, bunkers, tunnels and fences to constrain and atomize society can be found at the blog Subtopia.

So, with that in mind, I was pleasantly surprise to see this strong indicator of positive social mood pop up in the mediastream:

Picture courtesy of Reuters

Cyprus tears down barricade dividing island
By Michele Kambas and Simon Bahceli

NICOSIA (Reuters) - Greek and Turkish Cypriots pulled down barricades on Thursday separating them for half a century, reopening a street which became a symbol of Cyprus's ethnic partition.

The reopening of Ledra Street was meant to be a step towards ending the island's division, an obstacle to Turkey's membership of the European Union and a source of tension between NATO partners Athens and Ankara.

Hundreds of Greek and Turkish Cypriots crossed Ledra after the 80-metre (262 ft) stretch of road in the main commercial district of Nicosia was opened to pedestrians in a ceremony attended by UN envoys and dignitaries from both communities...

Combined with the rise of U.S. stock markets in the face of fundamentals and news that would lead one to expect a collapse in values, this story leaves me even more convinced that we should see a few months of positive social mood, rising or stable markets and a belief that the Fed has "fixed" the credit crunch.

I still think this will be a final Indian Summer before a seriously ugly "winter" of negative mood moves into the drivers seat for the 300 million of us here in the U.S. - but hey - enjoy it while it lasts.

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