Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Blowback

Stratfor has an interesting take on potential Russian responses to the declaration of independence by Kosovo:
...the Kremlin’s allies would see the inability of Moscow to defend Serbia as an exposure of Russia’s international weakness. In their eyes, Russia would have abandoned Serbia — not once, but twice. NATO and the European Union have now absorbed — or at least determined the future of — all of Central Europe, the Baltics and the Balkans. If Russia — after 17 years of diplomacy — is unable to protect an ally, then what exactly is a relationship with Russia worth? If Russia’s aura of inevitability is shown to be nothing more than a facade of bluster, why would anyone seek Russian protection rather than making their peace with a still-expanding European Union and NATO? ...

Stratfor then goes on to list the many ways in which the independence of this tiny sliver of Europe (about the size of the county I was born in) could unravel much of Putin's efforts over the years to reassert Russian power, ending with this:


...The only way that Putin can prevent any of this from happening is to strike back — quickly, and in a place that matters deeply to Europe.


Huh. Another round of cyberwar and saber-rattling in the Baltics? Pressure on Georgia?

And we also may just need to designate March 2008 as the Official Blowback Month, as here in the FutureJacked Bunker, we are expecting Hezbollah to engage in retaliatory strikes against Israel and/or the United States in response to the hit on Mugniyah.

Could get interesting out there folks.

No comments: