Tuesday, May 24, 2016

The Cost of Disruption Continues to Collapse

The Disruption by CAVARTWORKS

One of the themes we continue to harp upon here at FutureJacked is that the settled and orderly life (and the systems set up to support that orderly existence) that so many (not all, but many) in the Western Industrial World have enjoyed for decades is coming unraveled as the foundations upon which it was built upon wash away under the changing tides of net negative social mood and a shift in technology allowing small groups to wield significant power to destroy.

The Old World, built as it was during an era of intensely positive social mood, governed by bureaucracies that were at least moderately efficient in not killing the goose that lays the golden eggs of good jobs and stable investment environments, and leveraging technologies of violence that tilted in favor of large-scale organizations (generally the thesis described in brief in Catastrophic Abundance) is dead. The vast majority just have not woken up to that fact. When they do, they will look around see a world with its infrastructure all laid out in nice, shiny, easily disrupted locations because of the assumptions made back in an era of peace and trust.

As mood continues to darken, things like this will continue to intrude on the psyche of that majority, reinforcing the downturn:

Threatening Robo-Calls Evacuate Thousands of Students in U.S., U.K. Schools

Thousands of students in several dozen schools across the United States and Great Britain were evacuated Monday after what appeared to be coordinated recorded threats of violence were called in, according to news reports and law enforcement officials who spoke to NBC News...
The formal response modern institutions are locked into guarantees widespread disruption at the most minor of perceived threats. It's as if society has an auto-immune disease and the slightest trigger can set off a cascading set of costly, disruptive, and time-consuming responses. And this particular incident didn't even involve a bomb or a gun. Imagine the disruption ramped up from here if a pipe bomb (even a fake one) had been planted as part of this Op...

John Robb has done a lot of work in this space over the years and you should be following his stuff.

But don't just read and think about it. There's more than sufficient evidence out there right now for you to realize you must - must - become more resilient. Grow a garden, have a little extra food on hand. Know what to do if the power goes out for four days, know your neighbors. Life is going to get much more unsettled in the coming decades. Act now to prepare so you are not caught like a deer in the headlights when things go off-script.

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Threat Board May 2016

Crumble Canyon by Clay Brooks

In my last post, I mentioned I'd be hashing out some thoughts on structures to help us navigate the storm building up all around us. It's proving tougher than I thought. More to come and we may just muddle through it together.

In the meantime, we need to give another look at our threat board.

Rule #1: Check the Saudi Stock Market

I cannot continue to stress this enough - check the trend of the Saudi stock market (SASEIDX). Here is the one-year chart for perspective:
SASEIDX, Bloomberg
They continue to hold the line, but take a look at it from the perspective of the 5 year chart and you'll see what looks to me to be an unhealthy pattern. For you technical analysts out there, especially those who use the Elliott Wave toolkit, chart your own waves or have EWI do it for you and make up your own mind, but considering this news tidbit from Bloomberg today, looks like the "fundamentals" are beginning to reflect the chart:

Saudi Arabia Considers Paying Contractors With IOUs

Saudi Arabia has told banks in the country that it is considering giving contractors IOUs to settle some outstanding bills, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

A projected budget deficit this year is prompting the government to weigh alternatives to limit spending. Contractors would receive bond-like instruments to cover the amount they are owed by the state which they could hold until maturity or sell on to banks, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private.

Contractors have received some payments from the government in cash and the rest could come in "I-owe-you" notes, the people said...
I'll just leave that there for you to ponder. If you've ever had cash flow challenges, whether with your personal budget or in running a business, you know what this means.

As goes the Kingdom, so goes the Middle East

The Russian Nuclear Bogeyman

Putin is a bad man. Noted. But the absolutely mad rush by the Western elites to set Russia up as the next Great Satan is, in my mind, absolutely antithetical to US national interest and, frankly, the main interests of the major Western Powers, such as they are today.

Recently, we have a former UK general talking about how we are likely to see nuclear war with Russia in the near future.  This is on the heels of countless other articles churned out the various think tanks, policy offices, and government agencies, all equating Russia's attempts to re-assert her primacy in what she calls the Near Abroad to the full-court press of the old Soviet Union.

Russia is not the USSR. The idea you would expect Russia to quietly fold itself into a world system run by corporate chieftains and bankers whose brilliance was laid bare for all to see 2007-2008 and be pleased with march of NATO to within a few hundred kilometers of St. Petersburg is to misread Russian psychology and history with a level of mendacity not seen since the senility of the Spanish Empire. But you know what, our elites are just the men and women for that job.

My analogy continues to be, what would the US response be to China toppling the governments of Mexico and Canada, and installing their own puppet regimes there?

Somehow, the Western elites have managed to craft a policy that has aligned Russia with the radical Islamists in Iran and the Chinese. In a world where we should be aligned with Russia to face growing threats out of the Middle East and as a bulwark against he rise of China, we instead have actively worked to isolate her and drive her into the arms of our enemies.

Sadly, the worst part is, I actually agree with General Shirreffs from the article above - we very well may see a nuclear war with Russia. A war that even now is completely preventable. That was one of the driving reasons I wrote Nuclear Emergencies - we could very well see it within the next ten years.

Ranting aside, when analyzing the West's tensions with Russia, you generally need to drill down several paragraphs in news stories to get to any meat. Pay attention to increased troop placements, war games (which Russia routinely runs under scenarios which go nuclear), and, of course, what stock market charts tell us about social mood.

Secession Continues to be Mainstreamed...

Texas Secede Bumper Sticker

Pardon the abuse of the Queen's English there, but I continue to get sick at the continuing drumbeat (totally forecast by socionomics, I must state) of separatism and secession which continues to slowly grow in intensity here in the States. And yes, I'm looking at you, Texas.

But it isn't just Texas. Over ten US states have active (to some degree) secession movements. As we saw with the disintegration of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the USSR, and Yugoslavia - when large-scale political combinations built up over positive mood eras come apart, they can come apart quickly.

And for those who think it would be a swell idea, just remember, damn near every time, the first revolt fails...

A Tremulous Quiet

I'll leave the discussion of the upcoming US Presidential election alone for the moment. The DJIA continues its levitation act up up near 18,000. Whither it blows, we shall see - and that will help propel the campaign season in directions unimagined just a year ago.

At a more macro level, I recommend the following articles from The Archdruid Report as a way of describing some of the anger and frustration out there that the best and brightest continue to ignore and dismiss as nothing but the ravings of a bunch of ignorant, racist hicks who are too stupid to know how stupid they are and that they need to shut up and vote Blue:
Yes, in my model, socionomics is pumping the fuel into the system which ignites this anger, but Mr. Greer's discussion of how these things have worked out historically is well worth pondering.

More to come. Lot's more, sadly...

Friday, March 25, 2016

Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets

(Interview) Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets

See a fresh example in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

By Elliott Wave International

Mark Galasiewski, the editor of our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, explains how using the news to predict the markets is "meaningless."

State of the Global Markets Report

Learn the Why, What and How of Elliott Wave Analysis

Financial media use news and economic events to explain market moves. Steer clear of this misguided approach. Learn what really moves the markets with The Elliott Wave Crash Course.

In this series of three FREE videos, Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman demolishes the widely held notion that news drives the markets. Each video will provide a basis for using Elliott wave analysis in your own trading and investing decisions.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline (Interview) Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

The Next Wave

Coming Soon by Adam Spain

I wanted to check in on a few things and give you a feel for what we'll be working through here at FutureJacked over the rest of 2016.


First off, as I continue to insist you do on at least a weekly basis, let's check in on the Saudi stock index (one year chart):

SASEIDX via Bloomberg, 16 March 2016
Be wary. The Kingdom is the linchpin for the entire Middle East.

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Three Minutes to Midnight?

Cold War by Taylor Callery

I want to draw your attention to a recent article posted at War on the Rocks, entitled Three Minutes to Midnight: Closer to Nuclear Conflict Than We Think. It touches on a number of themes we've pushed hard here at FutureJacked over the last year and as mass mood continues to throw off alarm bells of negativity across the globe, these themes continue to be relevant to what you want to have on your threat board.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

State of the Global Markets Report - 2016

Futurejacked Readers -  I wanted to draw your attention to a limited offering from Elliott Wave International. As you know, we are an EWI affiliate here and have found their offerings very useful over the many years we've been both a subscriber and affiliate. 

I strongly urge you to take advantage of this free report before the free download limit is reached.

State of the Global Markets Report -- 2016 edition, one of the most anticipated annual reports for investors and technical analysts, has just been released, and the first 10,000 copies can be reserved right now 100% free. After that, it goes to $99 per download, where it will stay for the rest of the year.

This report flies off the virtual shelves every year, and with this year being especially volatile so far, we arranged with the publisher to give you an immediate heads up so you can be among the first to get access.

This 50-page, chart-filled report may be the most valuable publication you read this year. It will help you avoid the dangerous pitfalls and spot the biggest opportunities in the year ahead.
Want to know what's inside? Click this link to start reading it now. If you want a little context first, take a look at these headlines:
Wall Street makes worst ever start to a year (Financial Times)
Dow Tumbles Nearly 400 Points on China Worries (Wall Street Journal)
World markets plunge as oil drops below $27 a barrel (CNN)
Expect gold prices to be massively volatile (MarketWatch)
Notice anything interesting?

The thing that jumps out at me is how massively contrary today's reality is compared to most experts' projections for 2016 just a few short months ago. Not getting off to a great start, are they?
Now consider this: In the first week of this year, the Wall Street Journal polled 10 well-known fundamental analysts for their year-end forecast for the S&P 500. They projected on average the S&P to reach 2,193 by the end of the year. The lowest forecast was 2,100. The highest was 2,300.

Now that's interesting enough, but get this: These same experts from the same poll one year ago projected the S&P to reach 2,201 by the end of LAST year!

Fast forward to today, investors and analysts have been in a panic as the markets ended 2015 well off those projections and kicked off 2016 with its worst start EVER.

U.S. stocks, Chinese stocks, gold, oil, the entire European Union -- all are at pivotal junctures right now, and we're only two months into the new year.

If you want to prepare for the rest of 2016 and equip yourself to adapt to rapidly changing trends around the world, I encourage you to follow this link and claim your copy now.

You will get instant access to Elliott Wave International's annual State of the Global Market Report -- 2016 Edition, one of the most widely circulated annual reports for investors and technical analysts.

The State of the Global Market Report provides a premium-level look inside the world's largest independent financial forecast firm's big-picture forecasts for 2016. It gives you a snapshot of what's already occurred then focuses you squarely on what Elliott Wave International's team of global analysts sees for the rest of 2016 and beyond. At about 50 chart-filled pages, it may be the most valuable publication produced each year to help investors position themselves wisely for the year ahead, avoid the dangerous pitfalls, and catch and ride the biggest, fastest-moving opportunities.

You may not read every line of this globally focused report, but we guarantee you will benefit from the insights that apply to your favorite markets.

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The FutureJacked Team

P.S. We know most investors are interested mostly in U.S. markets, but there's an advantage to looking abroad, too. EWI has a keen understanding of how markets around the world fit into the global big-picture. After all, the Great Depression started in Europe then crossed the Atlantic to the Americas. So it's important you keep an eye on the global big picture. As a result of reading this report, you'll see what we EWI's sees right now and for the rest of the year -- both threats AND opportunities on a global scale. Click this link to learn more and download your free report now.
About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

He Knows What He's Doing

For those of you in the United States who continue to buy into the condescension of the Establishment as they attempt to explain the rise of Donald Trump in terms they can understand - only racist white straight males who are ignorant can vote for such a madman - make no mistake, he is not the fool they make him out to be.

Watch the video above. Look at the production quality, the way they play back and forth between dying Europe's cultural icons, shifting to the black and white video footage of swarming masses overwhelming border barriers. The fable that is chosen for this piece is pitch-perfect.

And the elites have no answer, other than, trust us, this will work out because we are smarter than you morons out in the lumpenproletariat.

Donald Trump as president would be a disaster for a variety of reasons, but the rage he represents is real and the core issues that drive that rage are far more than the arrogant assumptions of the elites.