Friday, March 25, 2016

Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets

(Interview) Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets

See a fresh example in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

By Elliott Wave International

Mark Galasiewski, the editor of our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast, explains how using the news to predict the markets is "meaningless."


State of the Global Markets Report


Learn the Why, What and How of Elliott Wave Analysis

Financial media use news and economic events to explain market moves. Steer clear of this misguided approach. Learn what really moves the markets with The Elliott Wave Crash Course.

In this series of three FREE videos, Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman demolishes the widely held notion that news drives the markets. Each video will provide a basis for using Elliott wave analysis in your own trading and investing decisions.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline (Interview) Don't Be Fooled: News Does NOT Drive the Markets. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


Wednesday, March 16, 2016

The Next Wave


Coming Soon by Adam Spain

I wanted to check in on a few things and give you a feel for what we'll be working through here at FutureJacked over the rest of 2016.

KSA KSA KSA

First off, as I continue to insist you do on at least a weekly basis, let's check in on the Saudi stock index (one year chart):

SASEIDX via Bloomberg, 16 March 2016
Be wary. The Kingdom is the linchpin for the entire Middle East.

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Three Minutes to Midnight?

Cold War by Taylor Callery


I want to draw your attention to a recent article posted at War on the Rocks, entitled Three Minutes to Midnight: Closer to Nuclear Conflict Than We Think. It touches on a number of themes we've pushed hard here at FutureJacked over the last year and as mass mood continues to throw off alarm bells of negativity across the globe, these themes continue to be relevant to what you want to have on your threat board.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

State of the Global Markets Report - 2016

Futurejacked Readers -  I wanted to draw your attention to a limited offering from Elliott Wave International. As you know, we are an EWI affiliate here and have found their offerings very useful over the many years we've been both a subscriber and affiliate. 

I strongly urge you to take advantage of this free report before the free download limit is reached.

State of the Global Markets Report -- 2016 edition, one of the most anticipated annual reports for investors and technical analysts, has just been released, and the first 10,000 copies can be reserved right now 100% free. After that, it goes to $99 per download, where it will stay for the rest of the year.

This report flies off the virtual shelves every year, and with this year being especially volatile so far, we arranged with the publisher to give you an immediate heads up so you can be among the first to get access.

This 50-page, chart-filled report may be the most valuable publication you read this year. It will help you avoid the dangerous pitfalls and spot the biggest opportunities in the year ahead.
Want to know what's inside? Click this link to start reading it now. If you want a little context first, take a look at these headlines:
Wall Street makes worst ever start to a year (Financial Times)
Dow Tumbles Nearly 400 Points on China Worries (Wall Street Journal)
World markets plunge as oil drops below $27 a barrel (CNN)
Expect gold prices to be massively volatile (MarketWatch)
Notice anything interesting?

The thing that jumps out at me is how massively contrary today's reality is compared to most experts' projections for 2016 just a few short months ago. Not getting off to a great start, are they?
Now consider this: In the first week of this year, the Wall Street Journal polled 10 well-known fundamental analysts for their year-end forecast for the S&P 500. They projected on average the S&P to reach 2,193 by the end of the year. The lowest forecast was 2,100. The highest was 2,300.

Now that's interesting enough, but get this: These same experts from the same poll one year ago projected the S&P to reach 2,201 by the end of LAST year!

Fast forward to today, investors and analysts have been in a panic as the markets ended 2015 well off those projections and kicked off 2016 with its worst start EVER.

U.S. stocks, Chinese stocks, gold, oil, the entire European Union -- all are at pivotal junctures right now, and we're only two months into the new year.

If you want to prepare for the rest of 2016 and equip yourself to adapt to rapidly changing trends around the world, I encourage you to follow this link and claim your copy now.

You will get instant access to Elliott Wave International's annual State of the Global Market Report -- 2016 Edition, one of the most widely circulated annual reports for investors and technical analysts.

The State of the Global Market Report provides a premium-level look inside the world's largest independent financial forecast firm's big-picture forecasts for 2016. It gives you a snapshot of what's already occurred then focuses you squarely on what Elliott Wave International's team of global analysts sees for the rest of 2016 and beyond. At about 50 chart-filled pages, it may be the most valuable publication produced each year to help investors position themselves wisely for the year ahead, avoid the dangerous pitfalls, and catch and ride the biggest, fastest-moving opportunities.

You may not read every line of this globally focused report, but we guarantee you will benefit from the insights that apply to your favorite markets.

Please follow this link to start reading the report now >>

Sincerely,

The FutureJacked Team

P.S. We know most investors are interested mostly in U.S. markets, but there's an advantage to looking abroad, too. EWI has a keen understanding of how markets around the world fit into the global big-picture. After all, the Great Depression started in Europe then crossed the Atlantic to the Americas. So it's important you keep an eye on the global big picture. As a result of reading this report, you'll see what we EWI's sees right now and for the rest of the year -- both threats AND opportunities on a global scale. Click this link to learn more and download your free report now.
About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

He Knows What He's Doing


For those of you in the United States who continue to buy into the condescension of the Establishment as they attempt to explain the rise of Donald Trump in terms they can understand - only racist white straight males who are ignorant can vote for such a madman - make no mistake, he is not the fool they make him out to be.

Watch the video above. Look at the production quality, the way they play back and forth between dying Europe's cultural icons, shifting to the black and white video footage of swarming masses overwhelming border barriers. The fable that is chosen for this piece is pitch-perfect.

And the elites have no answer, other than, trust us, this will work out because we are smarter than you morons out in the lumpenproletariat.

Donald Trump as president would be a disaster for a variety of reasons, but the rage he represents is real and the core issues that drive that rage are far more than the arrogant assumptions of the elites.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Threat Board February 2016

Triple Threat by Mr. Grin
In Looking for the Channels from June of 2015, we were trying to get a feel for where this onrushing flood of negative social mood would carve out the channels and build up the stories we'll tell ourselves about this unsettling era in which we live and hope to traverse.

Let's zero in on Syria, as it seems to have eclipsed the struggle in Ukraine as the hot spot most likely to generate an historical accident on the scale of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo. And while from a socionomic point of view the potential for a World War in the immediate future looks unlikely, things can spiral out of control quickly in these eras. Alan Hall covers this in a short video and link to an article here.

Replaying the Thirty Years War in Syria

As events in the Middle East barrel down the well-worn path to even more death and destruction, I continue to ask you to read news articles and consume news videos with a jaundiced eye and with your socionomics hat on.

At this point, any "real" reason behind the conflict in Syria has long be overtaken by events. Whether you subscribe to the Arab Spring in Syria thesis, or the attribute it to Sunni efforts to oust Assad and disrupt the "Shia Crescent", or that it was all about building a pipeline from Qatar to Europe - Russia's decision to prop up the Assad government in late 2015 has shifted the calculus significantly.

Today we find a situation where:

  • Russia is bombing "moderate" rebels in western Syria, shaping the events on the ground to restore the Assad government's primacy in the west of the country and secure the major urban areas (of which Aleppo is the key prize).
  • US policy is in flux, torn between the hawkishness of the McCain camp and a more "realist" point of view on whether further intervention will produce the results they hope for.
  • Turkey has become fixated on the growing strength of Kurdish elements in the Syira debacle, turning its guns on the Kurdish YPG - a group that has actively fought Daesh and has been strongly supported by the US coalition.
  • The Turkey-Russia dynamic continues to be tense. Russia has not only kept up significant air operations in Syria, but it has moved advanced anti-aircraft weapons in to Latakia and reportedly Russian Spetsnaz forces are active in Syria.
  • Saudi Arabia, already in a fight against Iranian proxies in Yemen and subject to attacks by Daesh internally, is readying itself to send forces to Turkey and engage the fight in Syria.
  • Jordan sits on the sidelines at the moment, but one can assume Daesh has its sights on the kingdom.
  • Israel will do what it wants, against who it wants. They are absolutely the joker in the deck. Should Jordan go up in flames, always remember there is a strong thesis in parts of the country that the Palestinian population should be forcibly relocated across the Jordan River. Should the region implode further, look for this "desperate times call for desperate measures" thesis to take hold in socionomically fertile soil.
And those are just a few snapshots of a region of vast importance to energy flows and geopolitics.

And as we strongly urged in our 2016 Socionomics Trendspotting article, you should be checking the Saudi stock market index at least weekly. Here's the current chart, five-year view for context:
SASEIDX Five Year View, Bloomberg, February 14, 2016
Looks like a steaming bowl of not-good, and also looks like a chart of a country set to double-down on sending troops out to fight their designated enemies.

The Keynesian Endgame Looks to go Full Retard

Pardon the indelicate, but accurate, phrase, but as Central Banks around the world go full retard with the implementation of negative interest rates and as they huff and puff and talk themselves into attempting to ban cash, what might that mean for those of us out in the real world?

The short answer is, I have no clue. NIRP policies would seem to be a bullet to the head to pension funds, but perhaps in the short term we could see the market head higher as money flees bonds. Or, perhaps NIRP might actually create a stronger incentive to save at first, until the Central Bankers really began to drop the hammer on relatively small deposits in terms of fees and negative-interest charges. If you are relying on a pension, or plan to in a decade or so, well, here is your pro tip of the day - it looks doubtful you'll see much of it when you need it.

As for banning cash, I again have no real clue how that might play out in the real world. The first shot across the bow will be banning large denomination notes, such as the 500 euro note, the 50 pound note and the 100 dollar bill. The same tired arguments used to ban private holding of gold back in the mid-20th century will be trotted out - only criminals need to hold these notes and we must fight those bad, bad people. 

After that, some societies might actually pull it off. Norway has talked seriously about it. And in a small, ethnically homogeneous society where the elites can get most everyone on board, it might work - until hackers step in and show just how vulnerable such systems can be. In a society such as the US could it happen? Maybe the $100 bill could get pole-axed, but past that, it will be much like efforts by the elites on the coasts to ban or strongly restrict firearms - they seem to have no real clue just how much resistance they would meet out in Flyover Country. But that may not stop them from trying.

Plan

We will leave you with this admonition - plan, but don't fear. Have a solid emergency plan in place. Think about how you would participate in a world where cash has been banned. What sort of barter arrangements would you be able to participate in? What skills can you offer? 


If war breaks out, what would that really mean for you? If a world war breaks out, what then? If nothing else, revisit our Nuclear Strike of the Month for August 2015 and apply that analysis to your region as applicable.

Keep your eyes open, believe little of the spin provided to you as fact, and enjoy the moment. We are still in an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity. Enjoy, prepare, then be part of the solution to a better world when the whole thing goes sideways.

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Europe: Why It's Going to Get a Lot Worse Before It Gets Better

(Interview) Europe: Why It's Going to Get a Lot Worse Before It Gets Better

New interview with our European markets expert

By Elliott Wave International

Brian Whitmer, the editor of our monthly European Financial Forecast, explains what indicators helped him anticipate market volatility.

You'll also learn what he's expecting for the year ahead in European stocks.

You can read Brian's commentary comparing Germany to the Greek god Atlas as part of our report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby.

Here's what you will learn:

  • How Europe's biggest economies are screeching to a halt
  • Currency devaluation's role in the developing global crisis
  • How the self-reinforcing aspect of deflation is already apparent in commodities trading
  • Why the top 1% of earners are in for a rude awakening
  • The hair-raising future for U.S. stocks

Just recall how swiftly the 2007-2009 financial crisis unfolded. We anticipate that the next global financial crisis could be even more sudden and severe.

Prepare now with our new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby.

CLICK TO CONTINUE READING >>


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline (Interview, 4:32 min.) Europe: Why It's Going to Get a Lot Worse Before It Gets Better. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.